Stocks flipped between gains and losses, with the tech heavy Nasdaq outperforming. The S&P 500 finished with an 0.3% loss while the NASDAQ dipped 0.1%. The U.S consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in February as rising prices and concerns about the outlook outweighed the near-term strength of the labor market. The Conference Board’s index decreased to 102.9, versus the median survey estimate for an increase to 108.5. US home prices, meanwhile, slid for a sixth consecutive month.

European bonds fell after France and Spain reported inflation that topped estimates. The U.S Ten-year treasury yields briefly rose above 3.98%, a level of resistance for many traders, before coming back down to about 3.92%. Bond traders no longer view the odds of a Fed rate cut this year as better-than-even, a shift from what they were expecting just a month ago. Traders are now pricing US rates to peak at 5.4%, compared with about 5% just a month ago.

U.S implied rate hikes

A broad measure of greenback strength posted its first monthly rise since September as Fed rate-hike bets were lifted and shares fell. The greenback was mixed in month-end flows Tuesday after a bout of soft US data and as oil prices firmed. The dollar was mixed against its Group-of-10 counterparts, with the yen and New Zealand dollar outperforming peers.

• USD/JPY little changed at 136.15
• AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6727
• NZD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.6181

• EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.0577

Oil advanced 1.5% to $76.83 a barrel as sanctions against Russia complicate purchases for the few buyers of the crude that remain. Gold rose 0.6% to $1,827/oz and copper was 1.9% higher at $4.08/lb. Elsewhere, Bitcoin fell though it is holding above $23,000.

Event radar: AU GDP and CPI (Today), China PMIs (Today), National People’s Congress (5th Mar), China Trade Data (7th Mar), RBA Meeting (7th Mar), RBA Governor Lowe Speaks (8th Mar), BoJ Meeting (10th Mar), US Employment (11th Mar), US CPI Inflation (14th Mar), US Retail Sales (15th Mar), China Activity Data (15th Mar), ECB Meeting (17th Mar), AU Jobs Data (16th Mar), US FOMC Meeting (23rd Mar).

Daily Market Analytics by,

Lenny Hayes

Chief Technical Officer